跟《经济学人》学英文：2024年08月03日这期 India’s economic policy will not make it rich

India’s economic policy will not make it rich

A new World Bank report takes aim at emerging-market growth plans

原文：

The developing world has fallen back in love with economic planning. As

protectionism sweeps the West, poor countries are no longer afraid of

industrial policy—or bold ambition. India’s government declares that

manufacturing will propel the country to high-income status by 2047.

Indonesia wants to get there by 2050, with growth driven by green

commodities. Vietnam is aiming for annual GDP growth of 7% until 2030. By

the same time, South Africa wants to have more than doubled its income per

person from 2021. Surely economies everywhere are about to accelerate.

发展中国家重新爱上了经济规划。随着保护主义席卷西方，贫穷国家不再害怕产业政策——或者大胆的雄心。印度政府宣称，到2047年，制造业将推动该国成为高收入国家。印度尼西亚希望在2050年实现这一目标，由绿色商品推动增长。越南的目标是到2030年GDP年增长率达到7%。与此同时，南非希望从2021年起人均收入翻一番以上。毫无疑问，世界各地的经济都将加速发展。

学习：

propel：推进；推动；驱动；

原文：

Not so, according to a new report by the World Bank. At current growth

rates, it will take India three-quarters of a century to reach a quarter of

America’s income per person. That is one calculation in the “World

Development Report”, released on August 1st, in which the bank’s

researchers run the numbers for 108 middle-income economies, accounting

for 40% of the world’s GDP and 75% of its population. Indermit Gill, the

bank’s chief economist, Somik Lall, one of his advisers, and co-authors

argue that the fad for industrial policy, especially as practised in India and

Indonesia, is unlikely to deliver the riches of which politicians are now

dreaming

根据世界银行的一份新报告，情况并非如此。按照目前的增长率，印度需要四分之三个世纪才能达到美国人均收入的四分之一。这是8月1日发布的“世界发展报告”中的一项计算，世行的研究人员对108个中等收入经济体进行了统计，这些经济体占世界GDP的40%，人口的75%。世行首席经济学家因德米特·吉尔和他的顾问之一索米克·拉尔以及合著者认为，产业政策的流行，尤其是在印度和印度尼西亚实施的产业政策，不太可能带来政客们现在梦寐以求的财富

学习：

fad：狂热；苛求

riches：（大量的）金钱；财富；财产

原文：

The report starts by laying out the challenge. Since 1990 just 34 countries

have attained high-income status. Thirteen were in the Eastern bloc and

benefited from joining the EU; another handful in the Gulf and Latin America

owe their wealth to commodity booms. Income per person in the median

middle-income country has remained below a tenth of America’s since the

1970s. If India is to sustain growth of 6-8% a year, it would repeat a feat

only South Korea has managed.

报告一开始就提出了挑战。自1990年以来，只有34个国家达到了高收入水平。13个在东欧集团，并从加入欧盟中受益；海湾和拉丁美洲的另外一小部分人将他们的财富归功于商品繁荣。自20世纪70年代以来，中等收入国家的人均收入一直低于美国的十分之一。如果印度要保持每年6-8%的增长率，它将重复只有韩国做到的壮举。

原文：

Such growth, the bank’s economists reckon, is fanciful. They argue

governments would be better off seeking to maintain slower growth for

longer. Mr Gill and co-authors suggest three aims: becoming more attractive

to capital, making better use of existing technology and developing new

tech. This is hardly groundbreaking. But what is new is the suggestion of a

timeline, against which they mark the progress of middle-income countries.

银行的经济学家认为，这样的增长是不切实际的。他们认为，政府寻求更长时间地维持较低的增长会更好。吉尔先生和合著者提出了三个目标:对资本更具吸引力，更好地利用现有技术和开发新技术。这算不上开创性。但新的是提出了一个时间表，以此来衡量中等收入国家的进步。

学习：

fanciful：富于想象的；异想天开的；幻想的；空想的；不切实际的

原文：

Brazil, for instance, is thought to have been on the right track until it became

a lower-middle-income country in the 1970s. At that point it should have

focused on importing foreign technology and introducing state-owned

conglomerates to international markets. Instead, it taxed international

intellectual property. Local patents became more common, but the quality of

innovation declined. Bulgaria, meanwhile, managed to integrate existing

technology into domestic production, but its own research and development

remains weak.

例如，巴西被认为一直走在正确的道路上，直到20世纪70年代成为中低收入国家。那时，它应该把重点放在引进外国技术和将国有企业集团引入国际市场上。相反，它对国际知识产权征税。地方专利变得更加普遍，但是创新的质量下降了。与此同时，保加利亚设法将现有技术整合到国内生产中，但其自身的研发仍然薄弱。

学习：

conglomerates:美 [kənˈglɑmərət] 组成联合大企业；组成企业集团；

Bulgaria：美 [ˌbəlˈɡɛriə] 保加利亚

原文：

The authors criticise countries that hope to skip stages by developing

homegrown technology, rather than rolling out stuff used elsewhere. Such an

approach risks wasting scarce resources. Researchers will be tied up with

bad products, state bureaucracy will be overwhelmed and funds will be

channelled to unproductive firms. The report points out that South Korea’s

industrial policy subsidised the adoption of foreign tech, rather than

incentivising the production of knowledge at the frontier of human thought.

Any country that tries the latter path, the authors warn, will struggle to reach

the frontier.

作者批评了那些希望通过发展本土技术来跳过阶段，而不是推出在其他地方使用的东西的国家。这种方法有浪费稀缺资源的风险。研究人员将与劣质产品捆绑在一起，国家官僚机构将不堪重负，资金将流向效率低下的公司。该报告指出，韩国的产业政策补贴了外国技术的采用，而不是激励人类思想前沿的知识生产。作者警告说，任何尝试后一条道路的国家都将难以到达前沿。

学习：

rolling out：延伸；推出

原文：

Mr Modi’s “Make in India” strategy hopes to attract foreign firms to

manufacture everything from phones to electric vehicles. That is better than

plans in other developing countries. Malaysia offers subsidies to fledgling

firms willing to try their hand at cloud computing. Indonesia shaves off

some of the cost of an electric vehicle, but only if enough of its components

are domestically designed. But there is a risk that India goes the same way.

Other prongs of the country’s industrial policy seek to advance domestic

technology, including in chips and defence. Since 2020 the state has banned

the import of 509 common defence components as part of a bid to pump up

local arms exporters. The country has nevertheless dropped out of the top 25

defence exporters.

莫迪的“印度制造”战略希望吸引外国公司制造从手机到电动汽车的一切产品。这比其他发展中国家的计划要好。马来西亚为愿意尝试云计算的新兴公司提供补贴。印度尼西亚削减了一辆电动汽车的部分成本，但前提是足够多的零部件是在国内设计的。但是印度也有走上同样道路的风险。印度产业政策的其他方面寻求推进国内技术，包括芯片和国防领域。自2020年以来，印度已禁止进口509种常见的国防部件，以刺激国内武器出口商。然而，该国已跌出前25名国防出口国之列。

学习：

fledgling：（刚会飞的）幼鸟；初学乍练的人；新手；菜鸟；刚起步的企业或组织

fledgling firms：初创公司

prongs：其他方面

• Prongs：在这个上下文中，“prongs”指的是某个计划或策略的不同方面或组成部分。可以理解为策略的多个方面或措施。

例子：The company’s new marketing strategy has several prongs, including social media campaigns and influencer partnerships. (该公司的新营销策略有几个方面，包括社交媒体广告和影响者合作。)

pump up：提高，增加

• Pump up：在这里，“pump up”意指“提高”或“增加”某事物的水平或数量。通常用于描述通过某种手段或策略来加强或促进某事物的行动。

例子：The government is trying to pump up local production by offering tax incentives to manufacturers. (政府通过向制造商提供税收优惠，试图提高本地生产。)

原文：

India’s management practices also come under fire. Although the World

Bank usually sticks to conventional macroeconomics, the report’s authors

employ a somewhat Schumpeterian framework, holding out the possibility

that incumbent firms can be efficient, but only if they are surrounded by new

entrants to keep them on their toes. India’s state prevents this at both ends of

the spectrum. Small Reservation Laws ensure a portion of handouts go to

firms too small to be efficient. Meanwhile, cronyism and poor competition

policy foster unproductive giants. A firm in America that reaches its 40th

birthday will typically have increased in size seven-fold. In India, it will

only have doubled in size.

印度的管理实践也受到了抨击。尽管世界银行通常坚持传统的宏观经济学，但该报告的作者采用了一个有点熊彼特式的框架，提出了现有企业有效率的可能性，但前提是它们被新进入者包围以保持警觉。印度政府在两个极端都阻止这种情况。小额储备法确保了一部分施舍给了那些太小而没有效率的公司。与此同时，任人唯亲和糟糕的竞争政策催生了生产率低下的巨头。一家美国公司在40岁生日时，规模通常会增长7倍。在印度，它的规模只会翻一番。

学习：

come under fire：遭到射击；受到抨击

cronyism： 美 [ˈkroʊniˌɪzəm] 任人唯亲

• Schumpeterian：这个词源自著名经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特 (Joseph Schumpeter)，他的理论强调创新、企业家精神和“创造性破坏”在经济发展中的重要性。在这里，Schumpeterian 框架指的是一种经济观点，即通过不断引入新企业和创新来刺激竞争和提高效率。

例子：The Schumpeterian perspective emphasizes the role of entrepreneurs in driving economic growth through innovation and competition. (熊彼特观点强调企业家通过创新和竞争推动经济增长的作用。)

• Keep them on their toes：这是一种比喻，意思是让某人保持警觉或努力工作，以应对不断变化的情况或竞争压力。在这个上下文中，它指的是新进入市场的企业通过竞争迫使现有企业保持高效和创新。

例子：The presence of new startups in the industry keeps the established companies on their toes, ensuring continuous improvement. (新创公司的存在使得已有公司保持警觉，确保持续改进。)

原文：

Not all of the World Bank’s prescriptions stand up to scrutiny. Improving

education is a worthwhile aim, if ferociously hard. Keeping populism at bay,

also on the list, is another nice but tricky proposal. The report’s fondness for

South Korean industrial policy goes overboard. Yet it is surely right that

much of the country’s prosperity came from stonking private investment and

openness to foreign tech. Mr Modi has been unable to get investment roaring

in the sectors in which he wants India to produce its own breakthroughs. The

risk is that, in making a premature push, the country will in time find it

harder to develop industries that rival America’s. Luckily, all is not lost. By

the World Bank’s calculations, policymakers have at least three-quarters of a

century to get things right. ■

并非世界银行的所有药方都经得起推敲。改善教育是一个值得追求的目标，尽管非常艰难。阻止民粹主义，也在名单上，是另一个不错但棘手的提议。这份报告对韩国产业政策的喜爱过头了。然而，韩国的繁荣很大程度上来自于强劲的私人投资和对外国技术的开放，这一点无疑是正确的。莫迪一直无法让投资在他希望印度实现突破的领域迅猛增长。风险在于，过早的推进，这个国家将会发现发展与美国竞争的产业更加困难。幸运的是，并没有失去一切。根据世界银行的计算，政策制定者至少有四分之三个世纪的时间来纠正错误。■

学习：

stand up to：顶得住；经得起；经得住

ferociously：美 [fə’roʊʃəslɪ] 野蛮地；残忍地；凶猛地

ferociously hard：非常难

overboard：过分；极端

stonking：引人注目的；激动人心的

keep at bay: 控制

• Keep at bay：这个短语的意思是控制或阻止某事或某人接近或对某人产生不良影响。在这个上下文中，指的是控制或防止民粹主义的影响。

例子：The government implemented strict measures to keep the pandemic at bay. (政府实施了严格措施来控制疫情。)

后记

2024年8月8日19点08分于上海。