跟TED演讲学英文:Why AI will spark exponential economic growth by Cathie Wood
TED英文文稿
文章目录
- TED英文文稿
- Why AI will spark exponential economic growth
- Introduction
- Vocabulary
- Transcript
- Summary
- 后记
Why AI will spark exponential economic growth
Link: https://www.ted.com/talks/cathie_wood_why_ai_will_spark_exponential_economic_growth?
Speaker: Cathie Wood
Date: October 2023
Introduction
Investor Cathie Wood explores this unique moment in technology, which she sees as being marked by the simultaneous evolution of five pivotal innovation platforms — a scenario unparalleled in history. Exploring the role of AI in reshaping economic paradigms, she predicts a surge in global GDP growth and productivity, underscoring the need for businesses and investors to adapt in order to keep up.
Vocabulary
convergence:美 [kənˈvɜːrdʒəns] 汇集,相交
automobile:美 [ˈɔːtəməbiːl] 汽车,注意发音
multiomic sequencing:
多组学测序(multiomic sequencing)是一种综合利用多种组学技术(如基因组学、转录组学、蛋白质组学等)来研究生物体的方法。通过同时分析多种组学水平的数据,研究人员可以更全面地了解生物体内部的复杂生物学过程,包括基因表达调控、蛋白质功能和代谢途径等。这种方法在生物医学研究、生物信息学和系统生物学等领域得到广泛应用,有助于揭示生物体内部的复杂性和互动性。
nomimal: 美 [ˈnɑːmɪnl] 名义上的
nominal GDP growth:名义GDP增长
bust:美 [bʌst] 经济不景气时期
“bust” 指的是经济泡沫破裂或者经济衰退的状态。在这种情况下,“tech and telecom bust” 指的是科技和电信行业泡沫破裂和经济衰退的时期。
And still again, after the tech and telecom bust, we’re back in the same kind of environment where no one believed that growth could be sustained. 同样,在科技和电信泡沫破裂后,我们又回到了同样的环境中,没有人认为增长可以持续。
beneficiary:美 [ˌbenɪˈfɪʃieri] 受益人
explosive growth:爆炸性增长
autonomous: 美 [ɔːˈtɑːnəməs] 自治的
autonomous taxi:自动驾驶出租车
autonomous vehicles:自动驾驶汽车
gross revenue:总收入
With productivity comes tremendous wealth creation. 生产力带来了巨大的财富创造。
But we really do believe that real GDP growth around the world is going to accelerate from that two to three percent range into the six to nine percent range, and a lot of that will be productivity-driven. With productivity comes tremendous wealth creation.但我们确实相信,全球实际GDP增长将从2%至3%的区间加速至6%至9%的区间,其中很大一部分将由生产力驱动。生产力带来了巨大的财富创造。
deflationary: 英 [diːˈfleɪʃənri] 通货紧缩的
Example: We think we’re heading into a highly deflationary period. 我们认为我们正在进入一个高度通货紧缩的时期。
monetary policy: 货币政策
jack xxx up: 提高;jack interest rates up 推高利率
And you’ve got monetary policy focused on lagging indicators of inflation and jacking interest rates up.货币政策聚焦于滞后的通胀指标和推高利率。
funk:美 [fʌŋk] 惊恐,恐慌:this is why the financial markets are in a funk.
supply chain shock:供应链冲击
unwinding:正在放松,正在消退
We went through a massive supply chain shock in the last few years, and we believe that is unwinding. 过去几年,我们经历了大规模的供应链冲击,我们相信这种冲击正在消退。
margin:利润,利润率
falling price:下降的价格
enhance margins:提高利润率
Fed policy is going to ensure that we end up with falling prices, which means margins are falling. Innovation solves problems. AI and these new technologies will enhance margins.美联储的政策将确保我们最终价格下跌,这意味着利润率下降。创新解决问题。人工智能和这些新技术将提高利润率。
disinflationary:反通胀的
In fact, if you get real growth, productivity-driven, real growth, it is disinflationary if not deflationary.事实上,如果你获得真正的增长,生产率驱动的真正增长,即使不是通缩,也是反通胀的。
equity:美 [ˈekwəti] 股票
equity markets:股票市场
discretionary:美 [dɪˈskreʃəneri] 可任意使用的,自由支配的
discretionary time: 自由支配的时间
A lot of young people today spend more than half of their discretionary time online. 今天很多年轻人把一半以上的自由支配时间花在网上。
conviction:美 [kənˈvɪkʃn] 信念
waver:动摇
doubter:美 [daʊtə®] 抱怀疑态度的人
Many people ask me, we have a lot of doubters out there, which I think you probably know about, how we maintain our conviction in this kind of forecast. And our conviction has not wavered. 很多人问我,我们有很多怀疑者,我想你可能知道,我们如何在这种预测中保持信念。我们的信念没有动摇。
Transcript
Well, today, something
is happening in technology
that has never happened before.
Five innovation platforms
are evolving at the same time.
Never happened before.
You have to go back to the early 1900s
to see three platforms
evolving at the same time.
You might call them general-purpose
technology platforms.
Back then, it was telephone,
electricity, automobile.
Game-changing.
Well, today we have five innovation
platforms evolving at the same time.
And they’re changing
growth dynamics incredibly.
So they are highly catalyzed
by artificial intelligence
as you see here.
But robotics, energy storage, AI,
blockchain technology
and multiomic sequencing.
The growth dynamics are changing
in a way, it reminds me,
I got early in the business,
the 1980s,
I was in meetings
where the going assumption was growth,
if it accelerated,
it would decay very quickly
back down to nominal GDP growth.
And that was a function of the horrors
we had been through in the '70s.
So it was very hard
to get investors to believe
that there were companies out there
that were going to help
generate productivity growth
and actually have sustained growth rates.
We get into the internet time,
and we begin this experiment with AI:
recommendation engines, predictive AI,
some people would say “pretend AI.”
And still again, after the tech
and telecom bust,
we’re back in the same kind of environment
where no one believed
that growth could be sustained.
And of course, the poster child
became Amazon –
20-25 percent compound annual growth rates
over 20-25 years.
So it was possible.
And by the end of all of this,
and actually today,
many people do believe in the FAANGs
and that growth will be sustained forever.
And yet we’re in another transformation.
We’re into real AI.
So generative AI.
And we’re also seeing these platforms,
these general-purpose technology
platforms, converge.
So AI, and I know you’re hearing
a lot about it here,
according to our work, our chief futurist
Brett Winton and his team,
artificial intelligence training costs
are dropping 70 percent per year.
What used to happen
with Moore’s law in two years
is now happening in six months.
We’re moving from linear growth,
which was that first,
to this belief that exponential growth,
so sustained rapid growth
in the case of Amazon,
finally believe that,
in the investment community,
the FAANGs are the poster children
we’re in this new world
with generative AI,
five platforms converging here.
And investors now think
that those same companies
are going to be the big
beneficiaries this time.
Now, some might, but the history
of technology is, they probably won’t.
If you look at technology indices
from, you know,
20 years ago, 30 years ago,
the top 10, even in technology,
are typically not the top 10 today.
I think Microsoft has been
a very big exception to that.
So here we are.
And what does this mean?
Convergence, generative AI.
Well, it means explosive
growth opportunities.
I’m going to give you one example:
autonomous taxi platforms.
Autonomous taxi platforms
are going to be the convergence
of three of these major, general-purpose
technology platforms:
robotics,
autonomous vehicles are robots;
energy storage, they will be electric;
and artificial intelligence,
they will be powered by AI.
This one opportunity, we think,
in the next five to 10 years
is going to scale to a revenue opportunity
of eight to 10 trillion dollars,
from essentially nothing now.
Now for perspective, global GDP today,
all of global GDP today,
is not much more
than 100 trillion dollars.
And here, we’re telling you,
in the next five to 10 years,
we’re going to see up to 10 trillion
in gross revenues,
with the platform companies
getting half of that.
If the platform companies get
half of that, four to five trillion,
they’re probably going to be worth
somewhere in the 20
to 50 trillion-dollar range.
Now, that’s just one example
of convergence
and generative AI combining
to create an explosive growth opportunity.
Now, for the economy as a whole,
we believe that GDP growth
is going to accelerate.
Now we’ve been in an environment
of two to three percent growth
on average for years.
And if you go back in history,
the history of technology
is you get jump starts in growth
to completely new rates of change.
And very often the jump
is between three and five times
what the previous growth rate was.
We think we’re in such a time now
because the artificial intelligence
and the convergence of these platforms
is going to generate
enormous productivity growth
the likes of which we have never seen.
So there are today roughly
a billion knowledge workers,
and their wages and compensation,
roughly 32 trillion dollars
around the world.
We think they’re going to become
four times more productive.
And typically,
productivity gains result
in rapid growth gains
much lower than expected inflation.
And if we’re right,
the GDP growth –
and I know this sounds crazy,
and most people think we’re crazy
when we say things like this –
but we really do believe that real
GDP growth around the world
is going to accelerate from that two
to three percent range
into the six to nine percent range,
and a lot of that will be
productivity-driven.
With productivity comes
tremendous wealth creation.
Productivity can end up in three places.
It can end up in profits.
It can end up in wages going up
as employees become more productive.
And we think that will happen as well.
And/or,
and it’s probably all three,
lower prices, deflation.
That’s the other thing I don’t think
people are expecting out there:
deflation.
We think we’re heading
into a highly deflationary period.
And all you hear today
is inflation, inflation.
And you’ve got monetary policy
focused on lagging indicators of inflation
and jacking interest rates up.
So yes, this is why the financial
markets are in a funk.
The Fed believes we’re in
an inflation-prone economy like the '70s.
We are not.
We went through a massive
supply chain shock
in the last few years,
and we believe that is unwinding.
And that Fed policy is going to ensure
that we end up with falling prices,
which means margins are falling.
Innovation solves problems.
AI and these new technologies
will enhance margins.
So we think, during this time,
and I think we’re seeing it empirically,
that these innovations
are gaining more traction today:
better, faster, cheaper,
more productive, more creative
products and services.
And so we’re pretty excited
about the next few years.
And do believe that the Fed
is making a mistake,
that something out there,
we thought it was the regional
bank crisis in early March,
no,
something out there
will telegraph to the Fed,
that the fight now
is not against inflation,
and that real growth is not inflationary.
In fact, if you get real growth,
productivity-driven, real growth,
it is disinflationary if not deflationary.
So we’re pretty excited
about the next five to 10 years.
And so what’s the bottom line
of all of this,
if we’re so excited
and think we’re going to get
beyond the macro environment?
So this is what we think
is going to happen
thanks to the convergence of those five
general-purpose technology platforms.
What you see here is a chart,
and the blue part is disruptive
or transformative innovation.
Today, it is valued
in the global equity markets,
both public and private,
at roughly 13 trillion dollars.
That’s a little more than 10 percent
of all global equity market valuation.
We believe that is going to scale,
thanks to the convergence
of these platforms
and the explosive growth opportunities
that they will provide,
to more than 200 trillion dollars.
That is a 40 percent compound
annual growth rate.
It’s very hard to believe, I know.
In the markets, they do think
we’re a little crazy.
But the building blocks
of our confidence here,
comes from our research
around these platforms.
40 percent compound
annual rate of growth
makes sense in the world
of accelerated real GDP,
very low inflation
and very high productivity.
And the number I threw out
just for autonomous taxi platforms
is in that 200 trillion.
It’s somewhere,
alone, that one opportunity
is between 20 and 50 trillion dollars.
Now what’s the other message
from this chart?
The other message is
that besides disruptive innovation
being a very good place to invest,
is that the other side
of disruptive innovation
is creative destruction.
And we’re going to – I just described
autonomous taxi platforms,
that is going to transform
all of transportation
and mobility completely.
The convergence
of artificial intelligence,
multiomic sequencing
and one the other technologies
underlying, CRISPR gene editing,
is going to transform health care.
We think blockchain technology
and artificial intelligence –
we did a fascinating podcast
on the convergence between those two –
is going to transform not only
the entire financial services sector,
but is going to lead to a whole new area
of property rights in the digital realm.
A lot of young people today
spend more than half
of their discretionary time online.
That’s where they’re interested
in staking out property rights.
So we’re pretty excited
about that as well.
Many people ask me,
we have a lot of doubters out there,
which I think you probably know about,
how we maintain our conviction
in this kind of forecast.
And our conviction has not wavered.
In fact, it’s increased
over the last five years,
and the numbers have grown larger
because of the breakthroughs in AI
that we didn’t even expect
to happen this quickly.
The courage of our conviction
comes from our research.
First principles research,
white sheet of paper,
you know, how is this
new world going to work?
So as I say, make sure,
given all the creative destruction
that there is going to be out there,
to get on the right side of change
and hang on for the ride.
Ignore the noise.
Because truth will win out,
and the opportunities are enormous.
Thank you.
(Applause)
Summary
The speaker highlights a unique moment in technological advancement, with five innovation platforms evolving simultaneously, including AI, robotics, energy storage, blockchain, and multiomic sequencing. These platforms are expected to drive exponential growth and productivity, leading to significant economic transformation. The speaker discusses how AI is reducing training costs and enabling generative AI, leading to unprecedented growth opportunities. One example cited is autonomous taxi platforms, which could generate trillions in revenue. The convergence of these platforms is expected to accelerate GDP growth, potentially reaching six to nine percent globally. Despite current concerns about inflation, the speaker believes we are heading into a deflationary period. The transformative power of these technologies is likened to the early days of the internet, with the potential for disruptive innovation across various industries. The speaker emphasizes the importance of embracing change and focusing on long-term opportunities amidst uncertainty.
后记
2024年4月9日写于上海。
相关文章:

跟TED演讲学英文:Why AI will spark exponential economic growth by Cathie Wood
TED英文文稿 文章目录 TED英文文稿Why AI will spark exponential economic growthIntroductionVocabularyTranscriptSummary后记 Why AI will spark exponential economic growth Link: https://www.ted.com/talks/cathie_wood_why_ai_will_spark_exponential_economic_growth…...

常用组合逻辑电路模块(4):数值比较器
数值比较器概述 在数字系统中,特别是在计算机中,常需要对两个数的大小进行比较。而数值比较器就是对两个二进制数A、B进行比较的逻辑电路。 比较结果有A>B、A=B、A<B三种情况。 简单数值比较器 1位数值比较器&#…...

实时时钟模块RX8901CE具有数字温度补偿功能,助力工业设备实现精准控制
在工业控制领域,电子产品的工作温度范围较广,同样的产品将面对高温、低温等不同工况。对于时钟信号敏感的电路设计而言,温度变化将严重影响产品功能,因此需要高精度时钟来保证电路信号的稳定,这种情况下需要使用带数字…...

Acrobat Pro DC 2023 for mac直装激活版 pdf编辑处理工具
Acrobat Pro DC 2023 for Mac是一款功能强大的PDF编辑器,为用户提供了全面且高效的PDF处理体验。 软件下载:Acrobat Pro DC 2023 for mac直装激活版下载 首先,它支持用户从现有文档创建PDF,或者将其他文件格式如图片、网页等轻松转…...

3D应用模型信创系统实时渲染有什么要求?
实时云渲染技术是数字孪生领域,比较常用的轻量化软件交付方式,该技术是将3D应用等大模型的算力执行放在了服务器端,而服务器目前比较常用的还是Windows系统。但随着国产信创在数字孪生领域应用越来越多,实时云渲染平台的国产信创化…...

Flutter之TabBar篇
总结了一下项目中用到的几种TabBar,针对不同的样式,有采用系统提供的,也有三方插件提供的,也有自定义的,效果如下(后续如果遇到新的样式,会不间断地记录更新,避免重复造轮子…&#…...

VRRP(虚拟路由冗余协议)详解
VRRP-------虚拟路由冗余协议 在一个网络中,要做为一个合格的网络首先就要具备几种冗余,增加网络的可靠性。 这几种冗余分别为:线路冗余,设备冗余,网关冗余,UPS冗余 VRRP该协议就是解决网关冗余的。在二层…...

【数据结构】04串
串 1. 定义2. 串的比较3. 串的存储结构4. 具体实现5. 模式匹配5.1 常规思路实现5.2 KMP模式匹配算法5.2.1 next数组计算5.2.1 代码计算next数组5.2.2 KMP算法实现 1. 定义 串(string)是由零个或多个字符组成的有限序列,又叫字符串。 一般记为s a 1 , a 2 , . . . ,…...
LAMMPS如何识别多孔结构的孔隙及其大小
关注 M r . m a t e r i a l , \color{Violet} \rm Mr.material\ , Mr.material...

JavaScript ECMAScript标准的与时俱进:从ES6至ES14的革新之路与关键技术特性剖析
ECMAScript(通常缩写为ES)是一种标准化的脚本语言规范,由ECMA International(前身为European Computer Manufacturers Association,欧洲计算机制造商协会)制定。自1997年发布首个版本以来,ECMAS…...

竞赛课第六周(树状数组的应用)
实验内容: HDU 1166 敌兵布阵【线段树】 线段树的应用 敌兵布阵 C国的死对头A国这段时间正在进行军事演习,所以C国间谍头子Derek和他手下Tidy又开始忙乎了。A国在海岸线沿直线布置了N个工兵营地,Derek和Tidy的任务就是要监视这些工兵营地的活动情况。由于采取…...

SpringCloud Alibaba Sentinel 实现熔断功能
一、前言 接下来是开展一系列的 SpringCloud 的学习之旅,从传统的模块之间调用,一步步的升级为 SpringCloud 模块之间的调用,此篇文章为第十六篇,即使用 Sentinel 实现熔断功能。 二、 Ribbon 系列 首先我们新建两个服务的提供者…...

开源免费AI引擎:智能合同审查技术的应用与优势
随着数字化转型的加速,合同作为商业活动中的重要法律文件,其审查和管理变得越来越重要。传统的合同审查方式耗时且容易出错,而智能AI合同审查技术的引入,为这一领域带来了革命性的变化。本文将探讨智能AI合同审查技术的应用和优势…...

易舟云凭证保存查看的3种方式
文章目录 1、保存为图片2、导出为Excel3、跨期批量导出 1、保存为图片 点击记账凭证详情,点击“下载-保存为图片”,即可下载图片! 2、导出为Excel 导出为Excel可以对单张凭证导出,也可以对指定月份的记账凭证进行批量导出。 1…...
Node.js 开发技巧
轻松创建 HTTP 服务器: 使用 Node.js,你可以轻松创建自己的 HTTP 服务器。只需几行代码,你就可以像一位传统的酒保一样为客户端提供服务。记住,不要忘记问客户端想要些什么! const http require(http);const server …...

【LeetCode】二叉树类题目详解
二叉树 二叉树的理论基础 二叉树是结点的度数之和不超过2的树,二叉树总共有五种基本形态 二叉树的种类主要有: 满二叉树完全二叉树 二叉树的存储方式 顺序存储链式存储 二叉树的遍历方式 先序遍历(深度优先搜索)中序遍历&…...
Lua语法(六)——面相对象编程
参考链接: 系列链接: Lua语法(一) 系列链接: Lua语法(二)——闭包/日期和时间 系列链接: Lua语法(三)——元表与元方法 系列链接: Lua语法(四)——协程 系列链接: Lua语法(五)——垃圾回收 系列链接: Lua语法(六)——面相对象编程 使用Lua表 进行类的模拟࿰…...

CSS-浮动文字环绕布局、隐藏属性display、overflow、三角形制作、鼠标样式
文字环绕布局 CSS文字环绕布局是指在网页中让文字环绕在图片或其他元素周围的布局方式。这通常通过CSS中的float属性来实现。你可以将图片设置为float: left;或float: right;,然后在文本元素中使用clear属性来清除浮动,以确保文字不会覆盖图片。另外&am…...

创建个人百度百科需要什么条件?
互联网时代,创建百度百科词条可以给个人带来更多的曝光和展现,相当于一个镀金的网络名片,人人都想上百度百科,但并不是人人都能创建上去的。 个人百度百科词条的创建需要满足一定的条件,今天伯乐网络传媒就来给大家聊聊…...

VR紧急情况模拟|V R体验中心加盟|元宇宙文旅
通过VR技术实现紧急情况模拟,提升安全应急能力! 简介:面对突发紧急情况,如火灾、地震、交通事故等,正确的反应和应对能够有效减少伤害和损失。为了提高人们在紧急情况下的应急能力,我们借助先进的虚拟现实…...

stm32G473的flash模式是单bank还是双bank?
今天突然有人stm32G473的flash模式是单bank还是双bank?由于时间太久,我真忘记了。搜搜发现,还真有人和我一样。见下面的链接:https://shequ.stmicroelectronics.cn/forum.php?modviewthread&tid644563 根据STM32G4系列参考手…...

Appium+python自动化(十六)- ADB命令
简介 Android 调试桥(adb)是多种用途的工具,该工具可以帮助你你管理设备或模拟器 的状态。 adb ( Android Debug Bridge)是一个通用命令行工具,其允许您与模拟器实例或连接的 Android 设备进行通信。它可为各种设备操作提供便利,如安装和调试…...

MFC内存泄露
1、泄露代码示例 void X::SetApplicationBtn() {CMFCRibbonApplicationButton* pBtn GetApplicationButton();// 获取 Ribbon Bar 指针// 创建自定义按钮CCustomRibbonAppButton* pCustomButton new CCustomRibbonAppButton();pCustomButton->SetImage(IDB_BITMAP_Jdp26)…...
Linux简单的操作
ls ls 查看当前目录 ll 查看详细内容 ls -a 查看所有的内容 ls --help 查看方法文档 pwd pwd 查看当前路径 cd cd 转路径 cd .. 转上一级路径 cd 名 转换路径 …...

学校招生小程序源码介绍
基于ThinkPHPFastAdminUniApp开发的学校招生小程序源码,专为学校招生场景量身打造,功能实用且操作便捷。 从技术架构来看,ThinkPHP提供稳定可靠的后台服务,FastAdmin加速开发流程,UniApp则保障小程序在多端有良好的兼…...

基于当前项目通过npm包形式暴露公共组件
1.package.sjon文件配置 其中xh-flowable就是暴露出去的npm包名 2.创建tpyes文件夹,并新增内容 3.创建package文件夹...
C++中string流知识详解和示例
一、概览与类体系 C 提供三种基于内存字符串的流,定义在 <sstream> 中: std::istringstream:输入流,从已有字符串中读取并解析。std::ostringstream:输出流,向内部缓冲区写入内容,最终取…...

NFT模式:数字资产确权与链游经济系统构建
NFT模式:数字资产确权与链游经济系统构建 ——从技术架构到可持续生态的范式革命 一、确权技术革新:构建可信数字资产基石 1. 区块链底层架构的进化 跨链互操作协议:基于LayerZero协议实现以太坊、Solana等公链资产互通,通过零知…...

自然语言处理——Transformer
自然语言处理——Transformer 自注意力机制多头注意力机制Transformer 虽然循环神经网络可以对具有序列特性的数据非常有效,它能挖掘数据中的时序信息以及语义信息,但是它有一个很大的缺陷——很难并行化。 我们可以考虑用CNN来替代RNN,但是…...
JS手写代码篇----使用Promise封装AJAX请求
15、使用Promise封装AJAX请求 promise就有reject和resolve了,就不必写成功和失败的回调函数了 const BASEURL ./手写ajax/test.jsonfunction promiseAjax() {return new Promise((resolve, reject) > {const xhr new XMLHttpRequest();xhr.open("get&quo…...